(ShareCast News) - On average, real house prices in the UK continue to be far below their pre-crisis peaks, but some indicators are pointing to an acceleration, favouring those homebuilders which are continuing to seek further volume growth, a leading team of research analysts claimed.
Since 1975, nominal house prices have risen by a compound annual growth rate of (CAGR) of approximately 7.8% and in London by another 9.3% - hugely outperforming other indices such as GDP, Barclays pointed out in a research note sent to clients.
However, upon deflation by the Retail Price Index UK house prices have in fact gained at a compound rate of about 2% and are now approximately 16% below their 2007 peak (despite the distortion posed by London).
On the basis of the historical correlations between the RICS price expectations survey with home prices in Britain and London, the value of the typical house in Britain and in London will increase by close to 9% over the coming six months.
Nevertheless, and as one possible caveat, Barclays added how: "the charts show that expectations of future price increases tend to run at higher levels than actual price data, suggesting that exuberance can triumph over reality. This suggests that the analysis should be considered to be 'best case'."
In a housing market which continues to strengthen, those stocks that favour growth over income should do best.
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